The recent news paints a mixed picture for ASML. Strong Q3 2025 results and positive outlooks for 2026, driven by demand outside of China and increasing margins, suggest continued growth and profitability. Analyst reports indicating potential upside and maintained buy ratings further support this positive sentiment. However, there are also concerning signals, like China's push for domestic equipment and reports of links between an ASML customer and the Chinese military, create uncertainty regarding ASML's future access to the Chinese market. The degree to which ASML can navigate these challenges will directly impact its revenue and growth trajectory. Overall, the stock's outlook depends on its ability to capitalize on opportunities outside of China and mitigate risks associated with increasing geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies.